Illustrative sample diagnostic
Scenario
A fictional B2B software vendor ran three enterprise POCs. All three met the agreed technical success criteria. None converted to paid rollout within 60 days.
Evidence matrix
POC A
SUPPORTED: technical success criteria were met; security review completed.
SUPPORTED: no confirmed economic buyer participated before technical completion.
COUNTEREVIDENCE to “pricing killed the deal”: no pricing objection appears in the provided decision trail.
UNKNOWN: whether budget had been formally allocated before the POC.
POC B
SUPPORTED: technical validation completed on schedule.
SUPPORTED: procurement requirements were discovered only after the POC ended.
COUNTEREVIDENCE to “product capability was the blocker”: no unresolved technical blocker appears in the evidence pack.
UNKNOWN: whether the internal champion had authority to drive procurement.
POC C
SUPPORTED: user acceptance and technical integration passed.
SUPPORTED: success criteria measured product performance but contained no commercial decision criterion or committed next step.
UNKNOWN: whether a competing internal initiative displaced budget.
Cross-POC pattern
SUPPORTED: 3/3 POCs had explicit technical success criteria.
SUPPORTED: 0/3 evidence packs show a pre-agreed commercial decision rule tied to successful completion.
SUPPORTED: 2/3 exposed procurement or buyer-authority gaps only after technical validation.
Working diagnosis
The evidence supports a repeatable transition failure between technical validation and commercial commitment. It does not support a product-performance failure as the primary common cause. Budget availability remains partly UNKNOWN.
Next-cohort experiments
- Require named economic-buyer participation or documented delegation before POC start.
- Add a commercial decision rule and next-step owner to the POC success plan.
- Surface procurement/security process before technical completion.
- Track technical success and commercial readiness as separate milestones.